American Express 2023
It's birdie fest time again. And at this odd week celebrities and rich people are welcomed to the party.
Playing 3 different courses that are in perfect condition and made easy to approach for the amateurs that chipped in 30k, this week is suited for players that can hole puts and hit approaches near.
It's a setup that our collective had hard time to approach, but this time around we found a solid benchmark years to find a suitable strategies.
Because of busy week, this post will feature the picks and live sheet for members to follow during the week. Once again we suggest to read the previews from Vincerix and Betspretsgolf. They bring all the needed aspects for picking players and our approach is more quantified.
The betting card & reasoning
Since finding the right strategy for this week, we've been following the market and analysing the best time to do our strategic bets.
The main idea is to long players who take 50% of the winner's market without Xander Schauffele who is obviously struggling with back issues. For Xander we've built a sizeable short position that has not filled 100%, but we'll probably take steeper price for that before in-play market starts.
In addition we went through players whose odds provided excellent plus expected value during the week and who fit the SG radar plot of past winners.
It'll be a calm week so wind adjustments were not needed and FRL is too messy to participate this week. For the ones following we hit Montgomery last week in this market with two ties and for the only top10 selection Canadian Nick Taylor brought a huge winner with his inflated odds although it was cut a bit because of dead heat rules.
The updated betting card sheet features results of past weeks and should be easier to understand for tailing purposes. Thanks for the feedback fellow Green Jackets.
Screen caps below (note the strategic bets part):
Enjoy the week and subscribe for upcoming insights and timely advice for taking an advantage of the lovely golf market.
