Rocket Mortgage Classic 2023
The PGA Tour is heading to Detroit Golf Club for another birdie-heavy renewal of the Rocket Mortgage Classic. The tournament is relatively new to the PGA Tour, with this year marking its fifth edition. The Detroit Golf Club, a Donald Ross-designed course playing to a par 72 over a distance of close to 7,400 yards, has hosted each edition.
Previously, Tony Finau captured his 2nd win in a row in the 2022 edition with a record-breaking -26 score, outshining Patrick Cantlay, Taylor Pendrith, and Cam Young. Finau will be defending his title this year against the strongest field in the event’s history, including 14 of the top 40 and 38 of the top 100 in the world golf rankings.
The Detroit Golf Club course, despite its length, is relatively easy to navigate due to its generous and straightforward fairways. Its main challenges lie in the green complexes, which showcase Ross’s diverse design, including back-to-front sloping surfaces. The course is known for its birdie chances, with most par 4s and par 5s being scoreable. This layout encourages aggressive play, and with the rain scheduled throughout the week, the greens are expected to be even more receptive than usual.
Key stats for success at the Rocket Mortgage Classic include SG: Approach, Proximity 100-150 yards, SG: Putting (Poa/Bentgrass), Driving Distance, Birdie Average, and Par 5 Scoring. Past winners have demonstrated excellent performances in these areas, suggesting the importance of a strong approach and putting game. Notably, shots from 100-150 yards are most common for the majority of players around the course, highlighting the importance of a solid wedge game. Moreover, the course's wide fairways and lack of severe doglegging holes have led to players frequently using their drivers, resulting in long hitters often faring well.
Betting card and thoughts
We are limiting our risk this week in the winner market and could pick up some top guys from the live market. It seems that the putter will define the winner and there are a lot of guys who can contend.
Our strategy this week is to do rather wide card with top20s, top10s, and several longshot winners.
To see our picks and model - sign in / get your "Green Jacket" as we like to say. We do not spam and work hard to bring well thought selections every week.
Here is the card and preview of data for the week is in the Tools section.
Tony Finau - 22 (open bet), 4.5 units
Justin Thomas- 24, 4.5 units
Doug Ghim - 120, 0.5 units
Ryan Palmer - 160, 0.5 units
Dylan Wu - 220, 0.5 units
Zac Blair - 400, 0.5 units
Note that we play with 300 unit bankroll and risk around 33% of it every week. Our lowest bet will always be 0.5 unit bet.
Stephan Jaeger - 6, 2 units
Dylan Wu - 12.5, 1 unit
Vincent Norrman - 14.5, 0.5 units
Zac Blair - 24, 0.5 units
Byeong Hun An-3.15
Stephan Jaeger-3.45
Aaron Rai-3.7
Adam Schenk-4.5
Sam Stevens-4.2
Joseph Bramlett-4.6
Doug Ghim-4.9
Matt NeSmith-6.21
Akshay Bhatia-6.64
Dylan Wu-6
Vincent Norrman-6.49
David Lipsky-7.8
Zac Blair-10
2-0.5 units depending on odds.
Winner and top bets are placed in Betfair Exchange. Sign up here.
Good luck for the week!
