The Players 2023
One of the stable tournaments is on this week with field full of talent. It kind of opens the Major season as a "5th major" and biggest prize pool in the PGA Tour Schedule.
Main strategy based on data is to short all players over 2% for first two days. It's a simple one and done strategy that would've been profitable for most of the years and averages over 20% yield. The market has seen this as odds have been falling a lot during the week which boasts a record turnover this year.
As previously mentioned market is full of good previews. We highly recommend reading the previews from Vincerix, Betsperts and some big bookmakers (Betfair and Sportinglife (powered by BetFred). These previews bring all the needed aspects for picking players and our approach is more quantified.
I'll add the main strategy picks just before the start, but there's also a lot of research done this week and the betting card features these right now. Still evaluating top10/top20 plays and it's model so we're going with "to miss cut" shorts, winner card and FRL + FR top 5's. For easier use I'll start to copy-paste the card below and update the larger card on a different page when it's ready.
Betting card
These plays were selected based on course adjusted 3 month true strokes gained, Datagolf's trend index and course history stats with some adjustments based on last 5 visits to TPC Sawgrass. I'd say these are experimental as you can see from unit sizes. Some shorts were added due to injury updates and really bad late form.
Have a great week!
